Did Polymarket Already Launch In The U.S? Influencer Campaign, Market Disputes, & Confused Traders
Is Polymarket making its final push into the U.S. market? Right now, shares are trading around 94%, but its final push might just be a campaign to build more hype.
Polymarket launch odds & confusion in the market
The past few days have been interesting for Polymarket. Between their CEO, Shayne Coplan, doing a full sit down with 60 Minutes and their launch odds pumping, it is safe to say traders believe the U.S. launch is coming, but no one is quite sure when. Some even think it has already happened.
It was only five days ago that traders were pricing a launch at only sixty nine percent, and now, after their interview and mass PR campaign, prices for a launch before 2026 have skyrocketed. An outcome of yes was already proposed on the market twice, which has now been disputed. Users are confused in the comments, with some stating that real money contracts have not been placed, which is true. Others are worried that a UMA vote will result in whales making sure the market settles to yes.
The market rules state, “This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if a real money trade is publicly placed on a regulated, Polymarket operated Designated Contract Market (DCM) by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to ‘No.'”
The confusion from the PR campaign fuels this, with affiliated users able to access the Polymarket app in the U.S. this past weekend to test sports trading and more.
Hidden influencer campaign
At the same time the 60 Minutes episode went live, Polymarket also launched a hidden influencer campaign on X with the goal of driving more attention to a U.S. launch. Tweets poured in from accounts like Breaking911, Laura Loomer, and Benny Johnson. It even got as far as George Santos sending a tweet out.
“Breaking: This will mark the first time I watch 60 minutes in a while!”
X community noted most of these tweets, confirming that they were hidden sponsored posts, which are illegal due to their lack of disclosure.
So when is Polymarket launching in the U.S.
It is hard to say when Polymarket is actually launching in the states, but it is easy to say that the messaging from Polymarket has been confusing for traders on the platform who are wagering on their launch. I would estimate a launch right around the new year, which is not ideal for folks who want to wager.
Right now, over $13 million dollars in total volume has been traded on the market, so a sour ending would not be ideal. Reading outcome rules is crucial, and when they are vague, and the platform itself pushes confusing information, it makes things even harder.
